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No gated PDFs, no "book a call". The complete framework we use, written out. Sources: Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets (1988), IBD/O'Neil relative-strength practice, and our own published forensic checklist.

Timing

The four stages — exact rules

Everything runs on weekly charts with the 30-week simple moving average as the spine. Every stock, index and sector is always in one of four stages.

How the live screen implements this, precisely: weekly closes of the Nifty 500; Stage 2 = price above the 30-week MA with the MA up more than 0.5% over 5 weeks; Stage 4 = the mirror image below a falling MA; flat-MA weeks are split into Stage 3 (within 20% of the 52-week high) or Stage 1 (deeper); high-RS Stage 1 names within 15% of their high are flagged S2 candidates. RS percentile = weighted 13/26/39/52-week return (40/20/20/20), ranked 1–99 across the universe. Nothing hidden — you can reproduce every value.

Stage 1 · Basing

After a decline, price moves sideways. The 30-week MA flattens; price whipsaws above and below it; volume dries up. Neutral ground — build your watchlist here, but don't buy. Bases can last months or years.

Stage 2 · Advancing — the only stage you buy

Begins when price breaks above the base's resistance with the 30-week MA flat-to-rising and price above it. Confirmation checklist: breakout-week volume ≥ 2× recent average (ideally 2–3×); relative-strength line vs the index rising or turning positive; the stock's sector also in Stage 2. Thereafter: higher highs and higher lows above a rising 30-week MA.

Stage 3 · Topping

Momentum stalls: price churns on heavy volume without progress, whipsawing around a flattening 30-week MA. Action: sell partials, tighten stops. A sharp weekly close below the 10-week MA on heavy volume is the early warning shot.

Stage 4 · Declining

Price breaks support below a now-declining 30-week MA; lower highs, lower lows. Exit everything, regardless of the "value" story — cheap gets cheaper in Stage 4. Never bottom-fish; wait for a new Stage 1 to form.

Selection

Relative strength — buy leaders, not laggards

RS compares a stock's price performance against every other stock (and against its own sector) and ranks the result as a percentile from 0 to 100, with recent quarters weighted heavier. An RS of 90 means the stock outperformed 90% of the market. Two uses:


Filter: only consider Stage 2 breakouts with RS ≥ 70–80. Weinstein's own rule: the Mansfield RS line vs the index must be rising or turning positive at the breakout — a breakout with falling RS is a trap more often than not.

Sequence: market stage → sector stage → stock. The forest before the trees: a Stage 2 stock in a Stage 4 sector is fighting the tide; the strongest setups stack all three.

Proof — the AlphaStage layer

The quality gate

Momentum tells you a stock is moving. It cannot tell you the profits are real. Before any name earns a PASS on our Quality Screen, it clears three filters and a 16-point forensic pass.

1 · Is it a good business?

ROCE consistently above 20% over 5–10 years. One good year means nothing; consistency filters out capital-hungry businesses.

2 · Can it blow up?

Near-zero debt, no pledging, and operating cash flow ≈ reported profit over 5 years. Profit is an opinion; cash is a fact.

3 · Is the price sane?

PE judged against the company's own growth and its own 5–10-year PE band — never against a universal "good PE" number.

The 16-point forensic pass

1 · 5-yr CFO ÷ PAT, year by year (gate: cumulative ≥ 0.85) 2 · Pledging & encumbrance — including fresh exchange filings 3 · Promoter buying / selling pattern (bulk & block deals) 4 · Debtor days & working-capital trend 5 · Inventory days trend 6 · Other income as % of PBT (treasury-propped profits) 7 · Borrowings trend — leases vs real debt 8 · PE vs the stock's own 5–10-yr band
9 · CEO / CFO churn — abrupt exits, revolving doors 10 · Contingent liabilities & fresh tax demands 11 · Related-party transactions, royalty creep to parent 12 · Auditor changes, qualifications, remuneration 13 · SEBI actions / investigations sweep 14 · Institutional flows — who's quietly leaving 15 · Cycle position — buying strength at a cycle top? 16 · Disruption exposure — AI, regulation, insourcing

Real example of why this matters: a company with 38% profit CAGR at PE 22 and 33% ROCE — the best raw numbers of an entire screen — failed check #1 with five-year cash conversion of 46% (one year: 10%). The P&L was beautiful. The cash never arrived. That stock is a FAIL on our Quality Screen, with sources linked.

Execution

Entry & exit rules

Entering

Traders buy the exact breakout with buy-stop orders above resistance. Investors buy the first pullback toward the breakout level or the 30-week MA — most breakouts retest. Never buy below a declining 30-week MA; never chase a stock extended far above it. Size every entry with the position sizer — risk 0.5–1% of capital per trade, stop below the base.

Exiting — where most people fail

Initial stop under the breakout point. Trail under successive support levels or the 30-week MA as the trend matures. Take partials on Stage 3 churn (heavy volume, no progress). Exit fully on a Stage 4 break — the method is as much about exits as entries, and the exit rule has no exceptions for stocks you've fallen in love with.

Disclaimer

AlphaStage is a data and research tool for educational purposes. It is not SEBI-registered and nothing on this site is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Verdicts (PASS / CONDITIONAL / CAUTION / FAIL) describe how a company's public data scores against our published checklist on a stated date — they are not predictions. Data comes from exchange EOD feeds, company filings, screener.in and cited news sources; it may contain errors and can go stale. Equity markets carry risk of loss, including total loss. Do your own research or consult a SEBI-registered adviser before acting.